Some Iowans, But Not Many, Willing to Bet on Caucus Outcome

With less than a week to go before Iowa’s first-in-the-nation test of presidential candidate strength, the good money may be on Mitt Romney or Ron Paul to win Jan. 3.

But in this state, which takes seriously its role in vetting presidential candidates, few seem willing to lay down a bet.

If they were, the smart money would be on Who Knows?

Truth is, despite more polls than corn stalks popping up in Iowa — and five leaders since August — nobody is really sure.

Who do you think will win the Iowa Caucuses? Tell us in the comments section below.

“For many cycles I have been fairly certain of which candidate would win," said Carmine Boal, a longtime state legislator and political observer from Ankeny. "I have no idea this time.”

David Yepsen, a walking almanac of Caucus history after 30-plus years on the Des Moines Register’s political desk, isn’t willing to risk his professional reputation by handicapping such a fluid race in which fully half of likely Caucus-goers say they’re not certain who will get their vote.

“The outcome of the Iowa Caucuses has always been hard to predict,” said Yepsen, now the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. “I don’t remember a time when they weren’t.”

‘Don’t Know’ Doesn’t Mean ‘Won’t Guess’

Current state legislator Kevin Koester anticipates record turnout “despite the overload of negative TV ads and invasive campaigning.”

He wouldn’t name names, but Koester predicts four viable candidates will emerge Tuesday and five will keep campaigning. That’s not a particularly gutsy call given the nature of the Iowa Caucuses is to winnow candidates more than to propel them. In other words, the Caucus creates losers more than it anoints winners.

He expects the big surprise of the night will come from former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who made big leaps in a CNN poll released Wednesday that showed him picking up steam and polling at 16 percent.

The same poll gave Romney the lead with the support of 25 percent of likely Caucus-goers, and Paul at 22 percent.

The seemingly continuous change in frontrunner status makes this Iowa Caucus a tough one to call, said Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa who has been compiling power rankings of the candidates throughout the Caucus season.

“It’s going to be very difficult to predict the winner,” he said. “Who’s strong in any given week is anybody’s guess.”

His guess?

Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are in a good position to win the “three tickets out of Iowa.” Romney probably will finish first, Hagle said.

How much is he willing to bet on it?

“Not a whole lot, I’ll tell you,” Hagle said. “Gingrich is fading, so it’s really just Romney and Paul. Paul has a good organization and could pull it out — he’s a wild card — and it’s all based on turnout. A couple hundred votes here and there could make a difference.”

So the shorter, and perhaps most reliable, answer to the most burning question among political watchers — Who is going to win this horse race? —  is vague and noncommittal: It depends.

It depends on whether college-aged supporters of libertarian-leaning Ron Paul, predicted to win in a spate of polls, return early to their Iowa college campuses to Caucus for the Texas congressman.

Public Policy Polling analysis says that among voters 45 and younger, Paul has a 35-11 advantage over Romney.

“Ron Paul's supporters are more passionate than any other candidate's supporters,” said Iowa GOP activist Jill Ellsworth, who expects Paul to win the Caucuses. ”His message of liberty, freedom, and common sense is resonating. His down-to-earth demeanor appeals to the everyday Iowan.”

Caucus Night Weather Always a Factor

In Caucuses past, sub-zero temperatures and mountains of snow have made the neighborhood gatherings an occasion mainly for the politically active and have kept interested but not politically connected Iowans at home.

Romney’s supporters tend to skew older than Paul’s, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage over Paul with senior citizens, according to Public Policy Polling’s analysis.

So far, the forecast calls for Caucus day to be mild, with a high close to 40 in Des Moines and no precipitation.

Mike Huckabee, the winner on the Republican side in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses, told Fox News Sunday that Romney benefits most from mild weather on Caucus night, but a blizzard would benefit Paul because his supporters “would walk over broken glass for him and they’d break the glass just to be able to say they did it.”

Tyler De Haan, a young Republican activist in Iowa’s fastest-growing county, gives Paul “a great chance to win.”

“I would expect him to garner anywhere from 15 to 20 percent of the vote and finish in the top three,” he said.

De Haan thinks Romney will get 20 percent of the vote and finish in the top three, and also said Santorum is a dark-horse candidate who will “surprise people” with a last-minute surge.

Doug Gross, a Des Moines attorney and former GOP gubernatorial candidate, said last week on Iowa Pubic Television’s Iowa Press that Romney could have locked up a Caucus night win if he had shown up in the state more often this fall. According to Gross, that would have thwarted former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s surge in the polls.

“He could have secured the nomination right here in Iowa and been very, very strong here, but didn't do so,” Gross said on the program. “He waited until Thanksgiving, and I still think he can win it in Iowa. In fact, today I think it's likely he would win it in Iowa because … those who don’t like him are incredibly divided.”

Will Moderate Republicans Show Up?

The outcome Tuesday depends on whether moderate Republicans show up, said longtime Republican activist Mary Kramer, a former Iowa Senate president and U.S. ambassador to Barbados.

Kramer thinks Romney can prevail.

“There is a real opportunity for so-called moderate Republicans, former Republicans and independents to make a statement by attending and casting their votes,” she said. “If they stay home, they can't sit on the sidelines and say they had no candidate this time. So either attend and vote, or stop complaining about the Republicans being held hostage by the far right.”