Final Des Moines Register Poll Shows Romney Ahead in Iowa, Dramatic Santorum Surge

The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before Tuesday's Caucuses shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leading the presidential candidate pack, but Ron Paul and a surging Rick Santorum are within striking distance.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

Most striking was Santorum's surge and the continuing crash of former U.S. Speaker Newt Gingrich.

While the poll was taken over four days, when the last two days are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent, the newspaper reported.

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“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer, told the newspaper.

While Iowans have taken a liking to several candidates, only to drop them within a few weeks, Romney has consistently hovered at or near the top of the field. He came to Iowa this week for a short bus tour in an effort to solidify his hold on the top spot.

The Register showed Gingrich polling fourth, still free-falling after leading in many polls less than a month ago. Gingrich polled at 12 percent, losing more than half of the support he had in the Register's poll in late November. Next were Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 11 percent and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann at 7 percent.

The Register's polls have been largely accurate in measuring Iowa's moods. Four years ago the poll showed Iowa Democrats were moving from frontrunner Sen. Hillary Clinton to then-Sen. Barack Obama — a prediction that proved correct on Caucus night. The poll also showed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with a strong lead over Romney, whose 2008 campaign was dealt a serious blow by the Iowa loss.

Other polls in the past week have showed Romney neck and neck with Paul and have reflected Santorum's momentum, but not as dramatically as the Register's poll.

An NBC News-Marist poll released Friday showed Romney has the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa, ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.

Recent numbers from RealClearPolitics found Romney and Ron Paul in a dead heat, each with 21.3 percent of the vote.

Friday's NBC poll also contained good news for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who moved into third place with support from 15 percent of likely caucus-goers. The rest of the field — all frontrunners at one time in Iowa — shows Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent, according to NBC.

Romney kicked off his Iowa Bus Tour in Davenport Tuesday evening with a stop at the Hotel Blackhawk. Since then, he's made stops at a coffee shop in Muscatine, a plastic molding manufacturer in North Liberty, Music Man Square in Mason City, a construction company in Ames and a Hy-Vee grocery store in West Des Moines.

Frances Kelly of Waukee was at Hy-Vee Friday to get her first glimpse of Romney.

"I hadn’t seen him in person ever," Kelly said. "I'm going to caucus for him on Tuesday. I’ve got my mind made up."

Santorum hopes he can ride a surge in the polls to a strong Caucus night finish.

A CNN poll of likely caucus-goers suggests that’s possible. Santorum’s support has tripled since the beginning of the month.

He hosted a Cyclone bowl watch party in Ames on Friday afternoon and a Hawkeye bowl watch party in Johnston Friday night. In what his campaign supporters surely hope isn't an omen, both Iowa teams lost.