Des Moines Register Poll Shows Cain and Romney at Top, Paul Next

From Huffington Post

The latest results from the highly respected and much anticipated Des Moines Register Iowa Poll are in, and they show the duo of Herman Cain and Mitt Romney leading the field of Republican candidates.

Cain receives 23 percent of the vote to 22 percent for Romney. Ron Paul runs third, with 12 percent. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who had shared the lead with Romney in the previous Des Moines Register poll in June, now receives just 8 percent of the vote. Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich each receive 7 percent, followed by Rick Santorum at 5 percent.

The results of the Register poll are generally consistent with four other surveys of Iowa voters conducted in October, all of which showed Cain and Romney leading the pack. Two surveys conducted using live interviewers by CNN/Time and NBC News/Marist show Romney slightly ahead of Cain. Two automated, recorded voice surveys conducted by Rasmussen Reports and the Democratic-affiliated firm Public Policy Polling show Cain slightly ahead of Romney.

The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll is the nation's longest continuously running newspaper poll, and it has asked Iowans about their caucus preferences since the 1980s. The Register and its current pollster Ann Selzer gained further acclaim four years ago when their final pre-Caucus survey was the only public poll to show Barack Obama with a wide lead over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. It was also the only poll to accurately forecast the "dramatic influx" of first-time caucus-goers that helped propel Obama to his eventual Iowa victory.

Because of the very low turnout of eligible adults to the Iowa Caucuses, however, all past polling of likely caucus-goers has been notoriously volatile. Although the Register poll accurately forecast Obama's win four years ago, their October poll conducted just three months earlier showed Obama running in third place, seven percentage points behind Clinton. Thus, with more than 10 weeks still remaining before the 2012 caucus, caution is in order.

The Register conducted telephone interviews Oct. 23 to Oct. 26 with 400 registered Republicans and independents who indicated they would definitely or probably attend the Republican Caucuses in early January. They report a margin of sampling error for the survey of +/- 4.9 percent. TheRegister will publish more results and analysis online Sunday morning.