Politics Watchers: Short of Gaffe, Magic Moment, Presidential Debate Unlikely to Sway Iowa’s Undecided in West Des Moines.

For political junkies, presidential debates are must-see TV. Stakes are high.

A couple of West Des Moines residents who will be watching what happens are on opposite ends of the political spectrum. Developer and casino owner Gary Kirke supports Mitt Romney and Historic Valley Junction Foundation Director says that short of Romney taking pro-choice and marriage equality positions, there’s nothing he can say to sway his support away from President Barack Obama.

Iowa is one of nine states pollsters say remain in play in the 2012 presidential election, but short of a defining gaffe or breakout line, it is likely to remain so after Romney Obama square off in the first presidential debate on Wednesday.

Are you planning to watch the debate? What would either candidate have to sa to win or sway your vote? Tell us below in comments.

The debate is being held at University of Denver in Colorado. Jim Lehrer of NewsHour on PBS will moderate the debate, focused on domestic policy. Wednesday's debate begins at 8 p.m., and will be aired on most major networks.

Kirke says that if Romney expects to overcome a polling deficit in Iowa and nationally, he’ll have to hammer away on issues where Obama is the most vulnerable – chief among them “Obamacare,” the issue that ignited the Tea Party; soaring national debt; and the failure of an $831 billion economic stimulus plan to reduce the jobless rate below 8 percent.

Kirke, one of the Des Moines area business leaders who threw a tony $1 million-plus fundraiser for Romney last summer, said “indebtedness is going to kill our country,” but he’s not sure either party has a firm resolve to correct that.

“Both parties need to get behind a balanced budget amendment so they can’t do this,” he said. “Republicans are as guilty as the Democrats, and the economics of our country are at stake.”

Miller, whose job involves helping dozens of small, mostly retail businesses become more successful, says he’s a “Blue Dog Democrat” when it comes to fiscal policy, falling more along the middle of the road – a lonely place politically, he said.

“People have become so extreme, so divided,” he said. “You can’t have a conversation today; there is no middle ground. It’s very unfortunate.”

Because the stakes are so high, political watchers across Iowa don’t expect much new to come out Wednesday.

“The entire election is at stake in the debate,” said Terry Dahms, chairman of the Johnson County Democrats. “Romney has everything on the line. Another gaffe and it's all over for him.”

But even they know that while something big could happen in Wednesday’s debate and those that follow, being careful not to lose the debates – rather than winning them – is the norm.

“I expect extreme caution and nothing really substantive about solutions to any number of problems: national debt, the war, Syria, Israel, China/Japan,” he said. “But it could be interesting, if they would, but they won't.”

Most Iowans Don’t Declare a Party and Most Don’t Watch Debates

Iowa has about 621,000 registered Republicans and 603,000 registered Democrats. Debates are largely a showcase for people who have already made up their minds, presumably largely from within those ranks. The problem is, Iowa has more people registered voters with no party - 666,000 active - than either of the major ones, and many undecided voters don’t watch.

“Relatively few undecided voters actually watch the debates,” said Justin Whitely Holmes, an assistant professor of political science at University of Northern Iowa. “The audience is largely made up of partisans who are just watching to cheer their candidate on.”

Political observers say the biggest chance the debate has of shaping the election is if one of the candidates screws up (think John Kerry’s, “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it”) or, conversely, one of them has a campaign-defining moment, such as Ronald Reagan’s, “There you go again” quip to Jimmy Carter.

“This debate is the most important of the series to be held,” said Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University. “Why? Because it's the acid test of how well Mitt Romney can hold up against Obama. Also, it’s the one where neither candidate can make a major visual or oral blooper.”

Still, those moments are rare.

Candidates Still Have to Sell Voters

Aside from trying not to make a blunder, the first debate will not be a cakewalk for Obama or Romney. They both have work to do.

The candidates will be trying to come across as confident, knowledgeable and, well, presidential. They each will get called on their white elephants of the day - Romney’s 47 percent comment and the notion that the Obama Administration “leads from behind” on key foreign affairs policy, national debt and jobs.

Obama will try to convince voters he has the country going in the right direction, and he deserves four more year. In this debate and others, Romney must show voters he has the better ideas when it comes to job creation and the economy, and he needs to come across as empathetic and likeable, Holmes said.

“Romney needs to do something to shake up the race. He has been trending downward in some recent polls and will need to reverse that,” Holmes said

As the challenger, the former Massachusetts governor is under more pressure, said University of Iowa associate professor of political science Tim Hagle. Republicans want to see him be more aggressive towards Obama.

For many casual voters, debate season is when they begin to pay attention to the election, so it could be a chance for both candidates to reset, particularly Romney.

“The debates may be the first time where people have the opportunity and inclination to tune in,” Hagle said. “Others would argue that people who watch are people who have made up their mind. In that sense, it's Romney who has more at stake. He has to prove himself.”